March 29, 2007

By Diane Chiddister

Assumptions concerning Yellow Springs’ population decline in recent decades have colored the recent conversation around the possible annexation of the Fogg farm. While most villagers seem to agree that the village needs some growth, they differ over how much growth is needed and how soon that growth should occur. Fueling these different viewpoints are assumptions about how much population Yellow Springs has lost in the past several decades. However, some of these assumptions are inaccurate, according to a look at U.S. Census figures.

For instance, the often-cited assumption that Yellow Springs has lost about 1,000 residents in the past three decades is inaccurate. And the population of village adults has actually grown about 17 percent in the past 30 years.

Yellow Springs’ overall population has declined in the past 40 years, but today’s population is significantly higher than 50 years ago.

Some of the confusion can be linked to the inclusion of Antioch College students in local Census figures. For instance, according to the 2002 Men’s Group Cost of Living Study, the 1970 population was 4,624 and the 2000 population was 3,761, a decline of 863 persons, or 19 percent.

However, those 1970 figures included a significant proportion of Antioch College students, according to Jane Dockery, associate director of the Wright State University Center for Urban and Public Affairs, which oversaw the Men’s Group study. Because in 1970 Antioch College was at the height of its growth and in 2000 its enrollment had significantly dropped, the Census population drop reflects a drop in the college’s fortunes more than a drop in village population, according to Dockery, who expressed surprise that the Antioch students had not been identified as such in the report.

The loss of Antioch students “has an impact on the community but is not the same as a mass exodus of households,” Dockery said. “That would be a misrepresentation.”

The 1970 Yellow Springs Census shows the village as having 4,624 residents, but 1,041 were Antioch students who were living on campus. In contrast, the 2000 Census identified Yellow Springs as having 3,771 residents, including about 500 students.

With the Antioch College students removed from village Census figures, the 1970 count is 3,583 to 3,154 in 2000, or a drop of about 12 percent.

The Men’s Group did not clarify the inclusion of Antioch College students in its study because members felt their responsibility was to present the total Census figures rather than attempt to analyze them, according to Ron Schmidt, who headed the committee that put together the study.

“I don’t know that it’s a pertinent piece of information that we wanted to pursue,” Schmidt said in an interview this week. What the group wanted to do, he said, was to provide valuable cost of living information for people to use as they saw fit. The Men’s Group was the only group providing such information, he said.

The Men’s Group study does include age group breakdowns, and these make clear that the group of residents which has most declined in the past 30 years is children. While in 1970, Census figures indicated that there were 286 children under age 5, the 2000 figures indicate that 136 children under 5 lived in town.

While the population of children declined, the adult population in town has steadily grown in the first three decades. While there were 2,153 adults over 25 in the village in 1970, that number rose to 2,520 in 2000, a rise of about 17 percent.

Using the period from 1970 to 2000 as the focus of the Men’s Group study is in itself misleading, according to villager Doug Bailey of the Village Environmental Commission, who is studying local history and the history of the Jacoby greenbelt. A focus on that time period is misleading because 1970 was the height of Yellow Springs population and comparing the 2000 census count to earlier decades would have shown a smaller decline in population, or an increase. For instance, in 1960, the Yellow Springs population was 4,167 and in 1950 it was 2,896.

But the Men’s Group study focused on that time period because 30 years was as far back as electronic records were available, Dockery said.

Contact: dchiddister@ysnews.com